Monday, October 30, 2006

 

Statistics in Action

Throughout our halls there are student-made posters against drugs, drinking, and smoking. Some are amusing; most are just what you would expect. However, I saw a line on one that I have to pass on.

One anti-smoking poster lists the side effects of smoking. The usual suspects are there, but the last one caught my eye.

Desire to commit suicide
(90% of all people who commit suicide are smokers)

At first glance someone might think, "Wow, that's a powerful statistic." Hogwash. That's like saying:

90% of all people with glasses wash their hands at least 3 times a day, therefore poor eyesight is caused by excessive hand washing.

(My favorite is from the tenets of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster)

Global warming, earthquakes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters are a direct effect of the shrinking numbers of pirates since the 1800s.

I don't know who is making these posters, and I agree with their basic premise, but someone needs to teach their students that correlation does not imply causation.


Comments:
A more appropriate interpretation of the statistic might be that suicidal feelings may lead to smoking.
 
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